ABSTRACT
Optimal investment decision maximizes the value of shareholders’ wealth, while achieving the goals of the corporation. However, making investment decisions takes into consideration internal and external factors and capital budgeting moderators: inflation, political instability, economic conditions and management attitude to risk. Based on economic theory, good capital budgeting should have a significant positive link with shareholders’wealth, especially when the moderators are positively aligned in their decisions.However, the presence of failed or abandoned projects,in practice, indicates that this is not the case always. In view of this, it becomes imperative to seek new insight on how moderators of capital budgeting impact shareholders’ wealth in the banking sector in Nigeria.
The study adopted the descriptive survey research design. The study population consisted of 53,528 members of staff of twelve commercial banks in Nigeria. Primary and secondary data were used in the study. Taro Yamane’s formula was used to determine the sample size of 397. Members of the sample were selected using simple random sampling technique. A self-developed questionnaire was used to collect primary data from top, middle and lower management staffof the selected banks. The questionnaire was validated, with a Cronbach’s alpha test yielding between 0.76 and 0.91 for the constructs of the variables. The response rate was 90.7 %. Secondary data were collected from the published financial statements of twelve purposively selected banks from 2004 to 2013. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the secondary data, while multiple regressions analysis was used to analyze the primary data.
The findings revealed that capital budgeting moderatorshad significant effect ondividend per share (R2= 0.286, p<0 .05="" affected="" budgetingmoderators="" by="" capital="" rofitability="" significantly="" sup="" was="">2
= 0.448, P<0 .05="" a="" and="" budgeting="" by="" capital="" earnings="" effect="" moderators="" on="" retained="" significant="" sup="" there="" was="">2 = 0.403, P<0 .05="" a="" budgeting="" capital="" effect="" had="" imilarly="" moderators="" onmarket="" significant="" sup="" value="">2 = 0.404, P<0 .05="" o:p="">
In conclusion, capital budgeting moderators influenced shareholder’s wealth positively. It was therefore recommended that investment managers should factor in the influence of capital budgeting moderators on shareholders wealth when making investment decisions. This implies that bank managers should always take such factors as inflation, political instability, management attitude to risk and general economic conditions into account when taking investment decisions.
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background to the Study
The focus on shareholder’s wealth has gained much importance in recent times within the Nigerian financial sector. The reason for this can be traced to the Central Bank of Nigeria reforms, monetary policies and bank recapitalization effects. Other reason for the increase attention to shareholder’s wealth with respect to commercial banks is the intermediary role of bank (Chen, 2006) in the financial sector of the economy and the volume of investors it attracts yearly. In recent times, there have been financial crisis in the world financial sector, especially, in the Nigerian commercial banks. According to Aanu, Odianonsen & Foyeke (2014) some of the problems emanated from unethical and wrong capital budgeting procedures of bank executives. These unethical procedures stem from absence of application of cutting-edge and transparent capital budgeting, inappropriate use of financial options for financing capital projects, and importantly, inability to manage huge capital base (Sanda, Garba & Mikailu, 2011; Al-Matari, Al-Swidi, Fadzil, Fadzil & Al-Matari 2012).
It is pertinent to recall that before the recapitalization exercise of 2004; the banking industry was highly undercapitalized. It was encumbered by fragile controls, poor regulatory design, feeble management practices and rampant ill-corporate governance practices. To a large extent, fund performance was just a minute ratio of the banks liabilities (Uchendu, 2005). It was against such background the Central Bank of Nigeria, years’ back, set out the initial stage of reforming the sector to its now diffused and robust state. In the reform process or recapitalization exercise, some commercial banks raised their capital base to N25Billion (twenty-five billion naira) and beyond through funds from the capital market. Banks that fail to raise this stipulated minimum capital requirement of twenty-five billion naira either merged with other banks in similar conditions or were acquired by stronger banks. This development was a watershed in the history of the Nigerian banking industry, especially in the area of increase funds or shareholder’s wealth in the hands of members of board of directors of these banks (Sani, 2009).
However, the major challenge after the recapitalization was the need to put the funds into good use so as to yield positive returns to the shareholders. Due to the conflict of interest that arises between managers and shareholders because of the increase in gap created between ownership and control of the banks, some of these managers started pursuing their own goal instead of that of the shareholders (Berlet & Means, 1932; Jung, 2015), by embarking on projects without proper appraisal (some of the projects either failed or were abandoned), granting loans to themselves and their allies/related parties without properly mitigating the risk involved; and within a very short time, some of the banks were making losses. As a result, they could not pay dividend, this affected the retain earnings and other shareholders funds, and the market value of the bank shares crashed (Kuye, Ogundele & Otike-Obaro, 2013).
According to Tufuor and Doku (2013), a major thrust of investment managers is the optimization of shareholders wealth in whatever direction they decide to follow. The pursuance of this aim is embedded in some critical decision amongst which is investing decision. Consequently one of the major tools of carrying out this process is through capital budgeting. Capital budgeting is the planning process used to evaluate an organization’s expenditure on assets whose revenue stream is supposed to extend beyond a period of one financial year (Van-Horne & Wachowicz, 2005). According to Froot and Stein (1998), if capital budgeting is appropriately done, it will bring about a huge achievement for any organization. This is due to the well understood potency of capital budgeting decisions in enhancing corporate performance by accelerating revenue stream and increasing the value of stock prices. In addition, capital budgeting can also affect bank financial performance positively if sound investment decisions are made. On the other hand, if poor financial decisions are made, it may amount to financial danger and total bankruptcy. While capital budgeting is the planning process, capital budgeting moderators is the subjective appraisal of a particular project’s taking cognizance of payback, net present value (NPV) of the organization and its internal rate of return (IRR) (David, 2016).
Poor investment decisions in a financial year or period of time will affects a bank’s profitability, retained earnings, dividend payment and may lead to shareholder’s distrust, prompting shareholders to insist on sharing retained earnings and other common wealth. Poor decisions according to Professional Management Education (2010), could be due to lack of subjective appraisal of other capital budgeting factors that encompass management decisions, need of the project, accounting methods, government policy, taxation policy, earnings, lending terms of financial institutionsandeconomic situation on which the project is carried out. Retained earnings as a performance indicator are employed as an in-house and economical path to ensure constant financing of favourable financial openings (Mehar, 2005). Also, financial profitable bank with strong net income could afford more dividend than less financial successful bank (Ahmed & Javid, 2008); thus for the weak bank with poor investment decision, its dividend per share will not be as substantial as that of stronger banks.
The more dividends a bank pays the less capital it will have for investment purposes and the fewer dividends it pays, the more capital it has for investment purposes. When the dividend is high, it may dampen future business growth because the bank will have less capital to fund new or existing opportunities (assuming it doesn’t raise capital by issuing additional equity). In addition, the bank management may decide to reinvest the surplus into business projects; use it to repurchase their own stock or pay it out to shareholders. Thus a chain reaction may develop when shareholders are more inclined in developing country like Nigeria to share the retained earnings (Roomi, Chaudhry & Azeem, 2011). They may discern that the amassing of retained earnings is at the same amount as dividends, and thus majority of this income are used by the relevant operators to further advance the established rules of the organization.
Making a good investment decision, according to Vineeta (2002), is of foremost weight due to the paucity of funds in firms and also due to the projected gains that may accrue to the firms. The gain from sound investment decisions is easily noticeable in firms not only to boost firm performance and maximize shareholder’s wealth but also ensures an increase in dividend per share and market value. More so, organizational profitability is, most times, determined by the capital expenditure embarked upon by the management of the organization. Vineeta (2002) wrote that funds sunk into capital expenditure needs to be recouped with profit or else the organization will make loss from the expenditure. Therefore, the procedure of capital budgeting ensures that resources are always apportioned diligently and managers are enabled to channel effort in the direction of positive returns that will recoup expenditure and give a fair return back to the owners of capital that was expended.
According to Omoleyinwa (2000), management can only maximize shareholder’s wealth or serve the best interest of shareholders when they employ the techniques of capital budgeting and critically appraise factors that affect capital budgeting (David, 1997). In addition, management need to maximize shareholder’s wealth by taking some specific actions such as directing shareholders’ funds into good use (investment in profitable capital projects) so that initial outlay will be recouped back as well as profit. It is pertinent that bank management adopt sound capital budgeting procedures and good investment decisions if their aim is to maximize shareholder’s wealth. Sound capital budgeting and good investment decisions entails factoring in external economies and other economic factors which can negatively impacts investment; such as inflation, Political stability, Management attitude to risk and Economic condition (David, 2016). These factors are referred to as capital budgeting Moderators. For instance, if unpredictable inflation is not factored into investment decision, it can affect the evaluation of the actual value of the forecasted prospective cash flow used in investment appraisal. That sum of money advanced at a rate of interest recovered at a pace equivalent to the reported or theoretical rate of interest will not be the same (Bora, 2013).
Political stability and Economic condition are some of the major factors that influence decision on where to invest and the nature of investment to involve in. In an economy where political instability is prominent, viable investment opportunity will be minimal. As such, substantial literature exists, giving weight to the adverse effects of political instability on an expanse macroeconomic variables including, but not limited to, GDP growth, personal investment, and soaring costs (Aisen & Veiga 2013). In Nigeria, for instance, political office holders are changed almost on regular basis, and in some cases, political instability may even lead to chaos resulting in vandalizing business premises.
Furthermore, Bakare (2013), in his work “Investment Climate and the Performances of industrial sector in Nigeria” highlighted further that political situation and economic conditions are some of the factors that affect company profitability and dividend payment. For example, Nigeria is presently designated as a high risk country for huge and stable investment owning to worsening state governance, volatile macroeconomic policies, graft and less than necessary infrastructures among others. The economic condition may be in form of monetary policy decision that affects income rate, which also affects the amount of borrowing, leading to greater effect on investment ventures and the purchase of consumer items. Consequently, due to bad investment climate and political situations innumerable investors have in the past couple of months relocated their businesses away from Nigeria (Nzotta, & Okereke, 2009).
Thus this study focused on whether or not capital budgeting moderators such as inflation, political instability, management attitude to risk and economic conditions as per David (2016) affects shareholder’s wealth maximization such as dividend payment, profitability, retained earnings and market value.
1.2 Statement of the Problem
According to Jones and Felps (2013), financial economic theory and Shareholders’ Wealth Maximization (SWM) principle are to achieve immediate operating goal, while ultimate purpose is to maximize market value in an organization. In other words, Brealey, Myers, Allen and Mohanty (2012) opined that the best decision is the one that maximizes the wealth of an organization’s shareholders. Thus the best investment decision freely speaking should be the one that generate greater present value of shareholders’ wealth (Copeland & Weston, 1992). Also, the agency theory suggests that the relationship between capital budgeting, it’s moderators and organizational performance or wealth of shareholders is expected to be significant in normal climes. Notwithstanding the assumption of the theory, so many outcomes and empirical results on capital budgeting are at variance to one another, revealing that the relationship is far more complex than earlier thought of. This can be evidenced by the presence of failed or abandoned projects in the banks which further indicates that this is not the case always (Kuye, et. al, 2013).
The argument between paying dividend as a performance indicator and retained earnings only as adding value to firms’ value was attack by Black and Scholes (1976). According to the authors, “if dividend is irrelevant, why would a privately driven corporations pay dividend? Also, why would investors seek out corporations that are capable of paying dividend yearly”? This fact was confirmed by findings from Osuala (2005), who found that profitability and other shareholder’s parameters affects dividend payments.
Furthermore, some events, during the banking reform exercise, suggested that commercial banks management hardly consider maximizing shareholder’s wealth. In a bid to be seen as being competitive, banks such as the defunct Oceanic Bank Plc acquired International Trust Bank Ltd (ITB) when it is evident that it was not in the best of position to do so at the time the acquisition took place (Kale, Oni & Njugo, 2008). Not too long after the deal, Oceanic Bank Plc itself was acquired by Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI) due to distress emanating from compounded liquidity problem. Funds were wasted by Oceanic Bank Plc in this transaction; but this could have been avoided if the decision had been subjected to a proper capital budgeting analysis (Kuye, et. al, 2013). One reason for this outcome from the investment angle is that the implementation of capital budgeting was a means of coping with acute resource scarcity (Pike, 1986). Other explanation for the investment failure is that the application of capital budgeting techniques, according to stress hypothesis principle, is in most cases connected with dwindling financial performance (Haka, Lawrence & George 1985); also it is understood that, in practice, wealth may not be created because of internal and external environment factors. Despite the reason proffered for the poor performances of some of these banks, there is still a need to empirically substantiate the sort of relationships that exists between the moderators of capital budgeting and shareholders’ wealth in the commercial banks.
Other contradictory findings between theory and practice in capital budgeting and shareholder’s wealth is that the link between future forecast and its effect on wealth creation for shareholders is more blurred than proposed in literature. It was discovered that higher earnings per share of common stock (i.e., equity) will tend, ceteris paribus, to increase as the invested asset remains viable (Verma, Gupta, & Batra, 2009). But the projected future earning will entail an inclusion of future forecast, this means taking in inflation, political instability and prevailing economic conditions and any other variable. This might create a situation where there is more than one possible outcome. So the decision to be taken by investment expert is compensation between accepting present gain over uncertain future risk. Since most past study is special in some areas and succeeding or newer studies tells something new or different, it becomes imperative to seek new insight on how moderators of capital budgeting will impact shareholders’ wealth especially in countries like Nigeria where there is a growing need to fill up the scarcity of literature as it pertains to the fundamental issues of capital budgeting moderators and shareholders wealth.
1.3 Objective of the Study
The main objective of this study is to evaluate the effect of capital budgeting moderators on shareholders’ wealth maximization in the Nigerian commercial Banks. The specific objectives are to:
- establish the effect of capital budgeting moderators on dividend payment within the Nigerian commercial banks;
- assess the effect of capital budgeting moderators on the profitability of Commercial banks in Nigeria;
- examine the effect of capital budgeting moderators on the retained earnings of commercial banks in Nigeria and
- ascertain the effect of capital budgeting moderators on the value of the shares of commercial banks as listed on the Nigeria Stock Exchange:
1.4 Research Questions
This study was guided by the following research questions:
1. To what extent does capital budgeting moderators affects the amount of dividend paid to commercial bank shareholders in Nigeria?
2. What effect do capital budgeting moderators have on the profitability of commercial banks in Nigeria?
3. When an investment decision is to be made among Nigerian commercial banks, to what extent will capital budgeting moderators affects the retained earnings stated in their yearly financial statements?
4. If capital appreciation is a consideration, what effect will capital budgeting moderators have on the market value of Nigerian commercial banks?
1.5 Hypotheses
The Hypotheses are tested at 0.05 level of significance.
H01: Capital budgeting moderators have no significant effect on dividend payment in
Nigeria commercial banks.
H01a: Inflation has no significant effect on dividend payment in Nigeria commercial banks
H01b: Political instability has no significant effect on dividend payment in Nigeria commercial banks
H01c: Management attitude to risk has no significant effect on dividend payment in Nigeria commercial banks
H01d: economic conditions has no significant effect on dividend payment in Nigeria commercial banks
H02: Capital budgeting moderators does not significantly affect Profitability of commercial banks in Nigeria
H02a: Inflation does not significantly affect Profitability of commercial banks in Nigeria
H02b: Political instability does not significantly affect Profitability of commercial banks in Nigeria
H02c: Management attitude to risk does not significantly affect Profitability of commercial banks in Nigeria
H02d: Economic condition does not significantly affect Profitability of commercial banks in Nigeria
H03: Capital budgeting moderators have no significant effect on the retained earnings of commercial banks in Nigeria.
H03a: Inflation has no significant effect on the retained earnings of commercial banks in Nigeria.
H03b: Political instability has no significant effect on the retained earnings of commercial banks in Nigeria.
H03c: Management attitude to risk has no significant effect on the retained earnings of commercial banks in Nigeria.
H03d: Economic condition has no significant effect on the retained earnings of commercial banks in Nigeria.
H04: Capital budgeting moderators does not significantly affect market value of commercial banks in Nigeria.
H04a: Inflation does not significantly affect market value of commercial banks in Nigeria.
H04b: Political instability does not significantly affect market value of commercial banks in Nigeria.
H04c: Management attitude to risk does not significantly affect market value of commercial banks in Nigeria.
H04d: Economic condition does not significantly affect market value of commercial banks in Nigeria.
1.6 Justification for the Study
Substantial volume of studies have been carried out on capital budgeting. But these studies mainly relate to firm performance and profitability and other aspects of organizational performance. Some of the literature reviewed during the study include; Lazaridis (2004), in Cyprus, showed that capital budgeting have significant effect on shareholders’ wealth. However, the study falls short of incorporating the major non-financial variables of management attitude to risk and political instability.
Also, Ekeha (2011) in Ghana compared Capital Budgeting Practices by companies in Europe and West Africa to see whether economic development matters in the choice of which capital budgeting technique to use, but the study failed to draw conclusions as regard the importance of the “country effect” as an explanation for differences in capital budgeting practices between the European and West African companies, with the believe that there are some levels of economic factors among the determinants of the choice of capital budgeting practices. However, the study did not cover the effect of economic conditions on shareholders’ wealth. Elumilade, Asaolu and Ologunde (2006) in Nigeria carried out a study on capital budgeting and economic development in third world countries, the case of Nigeria. However, the study only focused on the public sector in Nigeria and failed to incorporate other sectors of the economy including the banking sector in Nigeria.
All the above studies focused on adoption of proper capital budgeting processes in general investment decisions as a means of achieving organizational goal. The studies were all carried out outside Nigeria with the exception of Elumilade, Asaolu and Ologunde (2006), whose study only focused on the public sector in Nigeria. However, none of the above studies focused on the banking sector. This research therefore seeks to bridge this gap by studying the effect of capital budgeting moderators on shareholders’ wealth in the Nigerian commercial banks. The commercial banks are in the spotlight because it currently has huge capital base in form of shareholders’ funds that gives it the opportunity to compete favourably with other banks in Africa and the world at large. It is a spotlight on the adherence of bank management to corporate governance principles and policies especially as it relates to risk management of funds and application of shareholders’ funds. In essence, the study will find out how management of Nigerian commercial banks has fared as regards their financial obligations to shareholders.
1.7 Scope of the Study
This study covered the commercial banks in Nigeria. There were 22 (twenty-two) licensed commercial banks in Nigeria as at the time of this study, out of which 14 (fourteen) banks were quoted on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. Of the 14 (fourteen) banks quoted on the Nigeria Stock Exchange, only 12 (twelve) banks were selected, representing 54.5% of the commercial banks in Nigeria but 85.7% of quoted banks. The two banks excluded from the quoted banks are Jaiz bank and Union bank.
Union bank was excluded because it was used as pilot study while Jaiz bank, which obtained a regional operating license to operate as a non-interest bank in 2011, apart from been a recent bank with fewer published account, was also excluded because it does not have similar commercial characteristic like the other commercial banks in Nigeria. The data used comprises both primary and secondary data. Secondary data collected for this study covered a period of 10 (ten) years (from 2004 to 2013) financial statements of the banks. This is the period the Central Bank of Nigeria embarked on major reforms to strengthen the banking industry in Nigeria, which raises the capital base of the commercial banks to N25b (twenty five billion naira).
The choice of this period also provide a uniform platform for performance comparison in the banking industry with respect to capital budgeting. The inability of some of the banks to raise this minimum capital requirement led to the reduction of commercial banks in Nigeria to 22 (Kuye, et. al, 2013). Commercial banks were chosen for this study because they perform bulk of the transactions in the banking industry.
1.8 Significance of the Study
The main purpose of this study is to examine, determine and critically evaluate the adequacy of shareholder’s wealth through capital budgeting moderators with a focus on commercial banks in Nigeria. The study was undertaken in order to increase the body of knowledge on the subject matter and further advocate the institution and operations of good and generally accepted principles/or policies of capital budgeting in Nigerian organizations, especially in the commercial banks. Therefore, the findings of this study would be useful in the following ways:
It would assist students and researchers in the understanding of the role of moderators (non financial factors) in capital budgeting and how it effects the evaluation of investments options. Also, it will increase the understanding of how available capital can be used to execute projects, in times of inflation, unfavorable economic conditions and political instability with a view to maximizing shareholder’s wealth. It would equally serve as a veritable resource material for future research on capital budgeting moderators and shareholders wealth,
To the firm’s shareholders, the results of the study would give an informed knowledge on the process undertaken by banks in applying funds to projects. Furthermore, the study would reveal how the application of funds in a project through capital budgeting yield positive returns that would be able to pay back shareholders for their capital outlay.
The study would further serve as a spotlight on the adherence of bank management to corporate governance principles and policies especially as it relates to risk management and application of shareholders’ funds.
1.9 Operationalization of Variables
From the aggregate proposition about the effect of capital budgeting moderators on shareholders’ wealth to the specific hypotheses, variables of research interest are operationalized to specify functional relationship and analytical model depicting the links between respective shareholders’ value and dimension of capital budgeting.
Y = f (X)
Y = SHW = Dependent Variable
and
X= CBM = the independent variable
Where
CBM = Capital Budgeting Moderators
SHW = Shareholders wealth
Thus:
SHW = f(CBM)
Shareholders Wealth (SHW) = f [Capital Budgeting Moderators (CBM)]
General Model
SHW = β0 + β1IN + β2PI + β3MAR + β4EC + µ
Where:
x1 = IN = Inflation
x2 = PI = Political Instability
x3 =MAR=Management Attitude to Risk
x4 =EC =Economic Conditions
Functional Relationships
y1 = DPS = f (IN, PI, MAR, EC) …………………. (1)
y2 = PRF = f (IN, PI, MAR, EC) …………………. (2)
y3 = RE = f (IN, PI, MAR, EC) …………………. (3)
y4 = MKV = f (IN, PI, MAR, EC) …………………. (4)
Where:
y1= DPS = Dividend per Share
y2= PRF = Profitability
y3= RE = Retained Earning
y4= MKV = Market Value
1.10. Operational Definition of Terms
Capital Budgeting: Capital budgeting is the strategy and procedures used to determine a firm’s expenditure on assets whose income stream is projected to extend beyond a financial year.
Capital budgeting Moderators: are mainly non financial factors that affects investor’s decisions or that determine the extent an investment or project turns out. In this study the capital budgeting moderators are inflation, political instability, management attitude to risk and economic conditions.
Commercial banks: A financial institution or money deposit bank that furnish services, such as acceptance of deposits, loans disbursement, mortgage lending, and supply of basic investment products like savings accounts. Eg. GT bank, First bank.
Dividend per Share: This is the portion of profit distributed to shareholders based on the number of shares held by each investor in a business.
Economic Conditions: this deals with the economic activities and monetary policies (harsh) that impact the country and financial corporate sector. A monetary policy decision that cuts interest rate, for example, lowers the cost of borrowing, and impact investment.
Inflation: this limits financial decision making. It entails a condition of unstable price, i.e. the instability of economic indices. Inflation depletes the purchasing power of the currency thus affecting actual value of the projected future cash flow used in investment appraisal. In a non-inflationary world, funds loaned at a rate of interest return at a rate equal to the stated or nominal rate of interest.
Management Attitude to Risk: this is the level of optimism or skepticism managers can express in investment in times of crisis either perceive or real. This occurs as managers intend to balance risks and rewards.
Market Value: this is measure of shareholder’s wealth. Market analysts generally use this term to pinpoint an organizations size. Also, several stock market indexes are measured by this term.
Political Instability: Political stability is a situation where there is constant and frequent change of government and distrust in continuity of government parastatals. It also includes a situation of constant violence and unrest. It is one of the major factors that influences decision on where to invest and nature of investment. In an economy where political instability is prominent, viable investment opportunity will be minimal.
Profitability: It is a measure of shareholder’s wealth. It measures the financial success of the banks in relation to the capital invested in it. The Net profit after tax is used to determine the profitability of the bank (Pimentel, Zuniga & Morrison, 2005).
Retained Earnings: This is the portion of profit not distributed to shareholders. Earning retained is reinvested by the company. Retained earnings are an indicator of shareholder’s wealth. It shows the financial performance of a firm. It is a capital that is not distributed to shareholders but retained for expansion and recapitalization.
Shareholders Wealth: A process that increases the current net value of business or shareholder capital, with the objective of bringing in the highest possible return. It is measured by retained earnings, market value, dividend per share and profitability.
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